000
FXUS62 KTAE 071010
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE HOLDING IN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LOW
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP BELOW THE PREVIOUS DAY
SHIFT FCST ONCE AGAIN....SO THE EVENING UPDATE LOW TEMPS FROM FRI
NIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY PROMISING AT THIS POINT. ALSO SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT THE TLH AIRPORT IS REPORTING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE FROM EARLIER PRESCRIBED BURNS...AND THIN CIRRUS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY E-NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE E-NE
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN ON THE FENCE BETWEEN SCA AND SCEC CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCEC IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS A RATHER
PROLONGED AND STOUT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER YET ANOTHER CHILLY
START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES A BIT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM
THE CWA TONIGHT...A MORE SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A QUICK WARMUP ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. THEN...ALL
EYES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH WHERE NOW TROPICAL STORM IDA
WHICH HAS JUST INCREASED IN INTENSITY BACK TO TS STRENGTH AS OF 4
AM EST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNW FROM NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY EVENING. BASED OF THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FCST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...IDA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...SO THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTRODUCTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER MON
MORNING...WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...
BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLEX...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE
HOSTILE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE IT TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. QUITE THE
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
PREDICTED TRACK OF IDA AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING TROF.
WITH IDA MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...AT ABOUT THIS TIME IDA WILL BE WITHIN RATHER
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IDA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CREATE A LARGE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER LAND TUESDAY. HELD POPS BACK 10
TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE GUIDANCE VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST.

WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING...THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTERTWINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THERE SEEMS TO BE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ON
THIS POINT. IT IS IN THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING THAT OUR REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WHAT REMAINS OF IDA SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION AND KEEP THE WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE APPROACHING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

.AVIATION...SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND
2SM TO 3SM AT TLH...THUS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING NEAR SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THIS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL SITES TOMORROW
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CI INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE STILL STRADDLING THE FENCE
WITH SCEC AND SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE
WITH THE SFC RIDGE INITIALLY MOVING FURTHER AWAY AS IDA BEGINS OUT
AS A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM...THAT WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. BY TONIGHT...
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE IN FULL FORCE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS IDA APPROACHES...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION LIKELY BEING WHEN TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH OR WARNING WHICH
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE NEEDED FOR PERHAPS A DECENT PORTION OF
THIS EVENT GIVEN THE ENHANCEMENT OF GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE BUILDING
SFC RIDGE TO THE N.

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RHS MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 TO 3
HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...
JUST ISSUED A REMARK AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   79  51  81  59  80 /  00  00  05  10  20
PANAMA CITY   77  58  81  63  79 /  00  00  05  10  40
DOTHAN        75  45  78  56  76 /  00  00  05  10  30
ALBANY        75  46  79  55  78 /  00  00  05  10  20
VALDOSTA      77  50  81  57  81 /  00  00  05  10  20
CROSS CITY    80  52  83  60  83 /  00  00  05  10  20
APALACHICOLA  75  58  78  66  78 /  00  00  05  10  30

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...NONE.

GM...NONE.

AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...GODSEY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD