000
FXUS62 KTAE 211912
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOW THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TX/LA LINE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION AND OPENING UP INTO A WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A
ENE TRACK ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...THEN INLAND AROUND MOBILE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS LOW FILLING THROUGH
THIS TIME AS IT TRACKS OVER SE AL AND INTO GA MONDAY.

RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER LA/SRN
MS/AL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO OUR SW GA COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY AS THIS LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACH.
THIS SLOWER TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCES UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH THROUGH THIS TIME WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOWER. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AS BASIC GUIDANCE...AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENCY...HOLDING ON TO MORE
CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND INLAND OVER OR AROUND
MOBILE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEST NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A PERIOD OR TWO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN UP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TREND DOWN INTO THE
FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.AVIATION...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. SOME
TSRA PSBL AT TLH OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING
DAY ON SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   57  71  52  72  49 /  80  70  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   60  73  55  70  51 /  80  40  10  10  10
DOTHAN        54  61  48  65  46 /  80  50  10  10  10
ALBANY        54  61  49  66  47 /  80  70  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      57  66  52  71  49 /  80  70  30  10  10
CROSS CITY    61  76  56  76  52 /  80  70  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  62  74  57  71  53 /  80  60  10  10  10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

AG/PD/BG